Happy 250th Birthday, America! This is also the 130th anniversary of the Dow Jones Industrial Average first being published. From that original value of 40.94, it has grown to a June 30, 2026, value of 52,319.20 (an all-time high) as our capitalist society produced an economic boom. Every entrepreneur, chief executive officer, and corporate manager wakes up each morning pondering how to produce more with less. Every worker in every industry helps fulfill those aspirations

The stock market continued to shrug off an ongoing war, rising inflation fueled by soaring oil prices, higher bond yields, and some frothy valuations to close May at a new all-time high level. It was the ninth straight week of gains, the longest such streak since 2023. As we noted last month, the primary reason for the market advance is what economist Ed Yardeni refers to as fabulous earnings momentum (FEMO). In fact, earnings have risen faster than stock prices this year.

Earnings continue to move stock prices higher as April generated the highest monthly return for the S&P 500 since 2020. With almost 90% of the S&P 500 companies reporting first quarter earnings, results were 18% higher than consensus expectations and are 25% higher than a year ago. Sales were up 10% year-over-year, and profit margins remain at record levels. As a result, analysts continue to raise their estimates for each quarter and for 2027. Meanwhile, the Fed left short

Markets have been highly volatile recently, with sharp swings driven by uncertainty around geopolitical developments. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to weigh on investor sentiment, particularly through its impact on energy prices, global trade routes, and overall economic stability. As long as tensions persist and the outlook remains unclear, markets are likely to experience continued volatility in the near term. The global chokepoint is the Strait of Hor

The story of the American consumer begins with their financial buffer, and recent trends in the personal savings rate show that cushion steadily thinning. As the chart below illustrates, households have moved from an elevated post-pandemic savings environment into a period marked by persistently lower savings behavior. Consumers are therefore increasingly reliant on credit, wage growth, or asset appreciation to maintain spending momentum—leaving them more exposed to shocks in